Thalion Tech · Defence decision and delivery support

Defence reform in action.

We help UK Defence deliver pace and value for money by pairing hard‑edged analysis with a relentless delivery mindset.

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Services

The decision science that moves programmes.

Cost modelling and forecasting

Parametric, analogous and bottom‑up cost models that are transparent, auditable and built to withstand independent scrutiny – from early concept to whole‑life cost.

Whole‑life cost · Statistically modelled · Risk and uncertainty

Business case and approvals

Five Case Model business cases and approval submissions that give decision‑makers the evidence they need, first time – shortening the path to contract.

JSP 507 · JSP 655 · Green Book

Single Source Contract Regulations

Independent SSCR support for government and suppliers alike: pricing, allowable costs, profit rate and reporting – so non‑competitive contracts deliver fair value on both sides.

Government · Suppliers · Pricing and reporting

Operational analysis and modelling

Simulation and effectiveness modelling that links capability choices to operational outcomes – turning complex trade‑offs into clear, defensible decisions.

Simulation · Trade‑off analysis · Aqua Book QA
Case studies

Evidence, delivered.

UK Defence · Largest UK space programme

Cost modelling and approvals support

The largest UK space programme needed to augment its finance team to support multiple complex Category A approvals. Expert Thalion Tech personnel were embedded in the programme to provide cost modelling and approvals support to a range of critical projects and programme activities. Examples of work undertaken include:

  • Programme resource cost modelAn adaptable, auditable model that forecasts whole‑life resource costs across the programme’s Civil Service, military and external‑assistance workforces.
  • Future Assured SATCOM cost modelA traceable whole‑life cost model for the future Assured SATCOM enterprise, across space, user equipment, ground infrastructure and service delivery.
  • Satellite filings cost modelA method to forecast the regulatory costs of current and future GEO and LEO satellite filings, across regulators and currencies.
Challenge
A complex, evolving programme that needed consistent, defensible whole‑life cost forecasts for its approvals and planning rounds.
Outcome
Auditable cost models for the workforce, the future enterprise and regulatory filings – used for approvals, planning and investment decisions.
Middle East national telecoms operator

Value Assurance Function design and build

A national telecoms operator set up a Joint Partnership Office to deliver IT and connectivity services to the government’s Ministry of Defence under a multi‑billion framework agreement. As specialist cost‑estimating adviser to the set‑up team, we worked to a short timescale to help define a Value Assurance operating model, governance and playbooks. Drawing on decades of experience, we worked closely with the Joint Partnership Office to:

  • Set the mandate, guiding principles and scope boundaries.
  • Design a six‑step method – breakdown structures, localisation screening, parametric independent cost estimate, cost‑risk‑schedule modelling, TCO and validation.
  • Build a threshold framework for selecting the right depth of assurance based on total value, risk and uncertainty.
  • Create playbooks and identify toolsets, data repository structures and content.
Challenge
No function existed to challenge solution and supplier costs – one had to be built from scratch.
Outcome
Final framework delivered and transferred to client staff for implementation.
UK Defence

Sovereign hosting for additive manufacturing data

The customer wanted to host a UK sovereign instance of a NATO platform that lets allies share additive manufacturing (3D printing) technical data securely. As cost specialists in a multi‑organisation study team, we were asked to produce Very Rough Order of Magnitude (VROM) costs and a cost‑benefit analysis of the national hosting options. Working with stakeholders from defence, industry and academia, we:

  • Turned stakeholder workshop findings – must‑have features, expected scale and deployment speed – into cost drivers for each option.
  • Built option‑based VROM cost bands for three hosting routes, from a shared, pre‑assured government cloud platform to bespoke cloud architecture, with instance sizing linked to demand.
  • Identified the key cost sensitivities: security accreditation, integration with national enterprise systems, and growth in parts demand.
  • Set out the next steps to move from VROM to a mature cost estimate and implementation plan.
Challenge
An immature, fast‑moving requirement – low demand today, a long‑term runway to hundreds of thousands of parts, and core support systems in a two‑to‑three‑year change window.
Outcome
Recommended the fastest, lowest‑cost route – deployment on an existing assured government platform in weeks, not months – with a costed path to scale as demand grows.
UK Defence · Largest UK space programme

Cost modelling and assurance support

As cost modelling and assurance partner to the UK’s military satellite communications programme, we built the models behind its approvals, planning submissions and investment decisions. Three examples of that work:

Example 01

Programme resource cost model

Situation
The programme had no consistent, programme‑wide method to forecast whole‑life resource costs across its Civil Service, military and external‑assistance workforces.
Task
Create an adaptable, auditable model to support approvals, planning submissions, workforce decisions and investment analysis.
Activity
We developed controlled templates for projects and enabling teams, separated underlying resource demand from realistic sourcing, and consolidated submissions through an automated feeder model. We added a structured rate card and minimum, most‑likely and maximum assumptions, and documented the evidence.
Result
A coherent, evidence‑based whole‑life resource forecast. It improved consistency between teams, made workforce assumptions transparent, reduced manual consolidation and gave a repeatable process for future planning rounds and approvals. Decision‑makers gained a clear view of resource needs, sourcing pressures, uncertainty and forecast spend.
Whole‑life resource cost · Rate card · Three‑point estimates
Example 02

Future Assured SATCOM cost model

Situation
The programme needed a coherent whole‑life cost forecast for the future Assured SATCOM enterprise – a complex system across space, deployed user equipment, fixed ground infrastructure and service delivery.
Task
Translate an evolving capability concept into a structured, traceable and defensible cost model for long‑term financial planning.
Activity
We developed an assumptions‑led cost architecture, defined product and cost breakdown structures, mapped technical milestones and dependencies, and applied consistent financial and economic treatments. Evidence, scope, exclusions and estimating methods were recorded in a controlled Cost Data and Assumptions List, so assumptions could be reviewed and matured with technical stakeholders.
Result
A coherent planning baseline for the future enterprise. It connected technical scope to cost, highlighted dependencies and uncertainty, and gave an auditable foundation for stakeholder review, strategic forecasting and investment approvals.
Space · Ground · User · Service delivery · CDAL
Example 03

Satellite filings cost model

Situation
Satellite network filings generated complex regulatory costs across orbit types, lifecycle stages, regulators and currencies, so future spend was difficult to profile consistently.
Task
Create a robust method to forecast the regulatory costs of current and future geostationary (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) filings.
Activity
We developed an assumptions‑led model covering International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and Ofcom application, coordination, notification, modification and annual management charges. It converted Swiss franc fees into pounds, profiled costs by financial year, included filing status and regulatory deadlines, and calculated GEO and LEO separately. Each assumption, boundary and source was recorded in a controlled Cost Data and Assumptions List, with version control and calculation cross‑checks.
Result
An auditable, evidence‑based cost profile for programme planning. It strengthened financial visibility, supported approvals and strategic planning submissions, and gave an adaptable framework to update fees, exchange rates, filings and schedules.
ITU · Ofcom · GEO and LEO · CHF to GBP

Planning a complex programme?

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Insights

Thinking for the reform era.

White paper · 2026

The price is not the cost: the Western launch crunch.

Western launch now depends on one company, and every alternative for medium and heavy satellites is grounded, capped or not yet flying. We show why the larger cost is delay, not price, and how organisations that need to reach orbit should plan, budget and hedge.

Download the paper
01 · Dependence

One rocket, one company.

SpaceX flies most Western launches and has stopped taking new commercial Falcon 9 bookings after 2028.

02 · Cost

Delay costs more than price.

Capital tied up, standing teams and spectrum rights at risk rarely appear in the estimate.

03 · Planning

Model risk, not list price.

Treat launch as a schedule‑driven, risk‑adjusted cost, and assured access as a priced choice.

Insight note · 2026

Contested, commercial, constant: SATCOM lessons from Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine has made satellite communications part of the fight. We set out what it has shown – the ground is the weak point, sheer numbers beat gold‑plating, and a commercial supplier can switch off – and five priorities for any nation shaping its future military SATCOM.

Download the paper
01 · Ground

The ground is the weak point.

A hardened satellite counts for little if the dishes, ground stations and links it serves can be jammed or hacked.

02 · Resilience

Numbers beat gold‑plating.

Back the protected core with many cheaper satellites in mixed orbits: too many to jam or knock out.

03 · Commercial

Agree the terms before the crisis.

Commercial capacity is only an asset if access, surge and control are settled in peacetime.

White paper · 2025

The Strategic Defence Review: from ambition to delivery.

The 2025 SDR says the UK must prepare as if already on a war footing. We set out three changes that would make it real: a culture where speed is everyone’s job, contracts won on working prototypes and not paper promises, and safeguards so that a stronger centre does not squeeze out SMEs and new ideas.

Download the paper
01 · Culture

Culture eats strategy.

Speed must become everyone’s habit. Ask “why not?”, and improve the process from inside it.

02 · Procurement

End winner‑takes‑all.

Award contracts on working prototypes and test results, not on written promises against static requirements.

03 · Structure

Don’t turn efficiency into fragility.

A stronger centre needs safeguards: longer competition, protected innovation funds and real SME spend targets.

About · Who we are

Created to deliver the change Defence needs.

A defence decision and delivery support company. We cut through bureaucracy with evidence that stands up to scrutiny, and plans that survive contact with reality.

No fluff, no consultancy theatre – just the tools, mindset and discipline to help get the right capabilities into service faster.

Leadership
Andy Mills

Andy Mills

Director

Andy is a highly experienced analyst and leader with more than 20 years in defence. He has led a team of analysts at a large engineering consultancy, served at board level in a defence SME, and supported some of UK Defence’s most important Category A programmes with cost estimating, investment appraisal and business cases. His work spans whole‑life cost and operational analysis across the land, maritime, air and joint domains.

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George Lyon

George Lyon

Director

George is a finance and cost modelling specialist with a strong record on major defence programmes, including as Cost and Approvals lead on a multi‑£bn MOD programme. He leads Single Source Contract negotiations, including Allowable Cost Reviews and profit rate investigations, and has delivered Category A business cases. George holds an MEng in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Bath and is Chair of the Society for Cost Analysis and Forecasting (SCAF).

LinkedIn ↗
How we work

A disciplined method, anchored in government standards.

JSP 507MOD investment appraisal
JSP 655MOD investment approvals
CAASCost Assurance and Analysis Service
Green BookHM Treasury appraisal guidance
SSCRSingle Source Contract Regulations
Aqua BookQuality analysis for government
Contact

Let’s talk about your programme.

Tell us what you are trying to approve, price or deliver. We will come back within two working days.

Emailinfo@thaliontech.co.uk LinkedInThalion Tech

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